November 2021
With November upon us, thoughts turn to the upcoming holiday season. Visions of a table groaning under a plump turkey, stuffing, cranberry sauce, and pumpkin pie have many of us counting the days until Thanksgiving. But this year, ongoing supply chain issues could threaten the festivities (and increase prices) both at Thanksgiving and Christmas. It would be wise to begin all your holiday shopping extra early to avoid disappointments.
On a much brighter note, the stock market has continued to do well and shows no signs of retreat. As of October 25, the S&P 500 set another new record, the 56th in 2021. The year-to-date S&P return, also as of October 25th, was 21.6%. Several factors suggest that the market could continue its current path through at least year-end. The fourth quarter is typically the market’s strongest quarter of the year, and a declining rate of new COVID infections should have a positive impact, while a tight labor market and the spate of employees resigning their positions also signal a strengthening economy. However, inflation remains more stubborn than anticipated, and in November the Fed has indicated that it will begin to taper their $120 M monthly bond repurchases. The Fed seems to be moving away from the earlier supposition that inflation would be transitory and may consider interest rate increases in 2022. This could create market volatility, at least in the short term. Though the Fed has telegraphed these changes well in advance, precisely to try and mitigate uncertainty and volatility.
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